Winning or losing in Iraq?

According to Bush, “freedom is on the march” in Iraq with elections scheduled for January 30th and generals are talking tough about “breaking the back of the insurgency.”

But the reality on the ground is far different than the happy talk in Washington and on TV.

The six months since the phony sovereignty handover on June 28th have been the deadliest since the war started, with 503 soldiers killed. Recently, 13 soldiers died in Mosul when a suicide bomber put on an Iraqi security uniform and walked in broad daylight into their tent, and 7 died in Baghdad when their Bradley fighting vehicle ran over an IED. These two incidents are the two biggest losses of American life yet, and the war isn’t even close to being over.

Iraqi intelligence service director General Mohamed Abdullah Shahwani said in an interview, “I think the resistance is bigger than the US military in Iraq. I think the resistance is more than 200,000 people.” His estimate is that there are 40,000 or so hard-core fighters, while the remaining 160,000 are part-time fighters and volunteers who provide rebels everything from intelligence and logistics to shelter.

Asked if the insurgents were winning, Shahwani answered: “I would say they aren’t losing.”

So what are the January 30th elections going to do about all this?

Not a damn thing. Iraq’s most powerful Shiite cleric, Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, has organized a united Shia slate and since Shiites are 60 percent of the population, he will emerge as the victor in the elections. Most of the Sunni-dominated political parties are either boycotting the election or calling for a delay because of the huge amount of attacks that the resistance will likely stage in central Iraq where it is strongest.

What Bush hopes to gain out of the election is an ally on the ground in Iraq that will use its power and influence to help crush the resistance. Once that is done, they can finally accomplish the goals of the war: establishing permanent military bases in the country and getting the oil flowing. Chances of this happening are slim to none. Only 2 percent of the Iraqis questioned by the now-dissolved Coalition Provisional Authority said they viewed American troops as “liberators” (and only 3 percent said they support Saddam Hussein). Asked if the Americans should leave immediately, 41 per cent agreed, while 45 per cent said they preferred US forces to leave once a permanent Iraqi government was installed.

That means whoever wins the elections in Iraq won’t have popular support if they are seen as a U.S. stooge, and especially if they support a crackdown on the resistance.

The January 30th elections is just the latest attempt by the Bush administration to make the occupation of Iraq work. Plan A - invade, knock over a statue or two, and everything will go fine - failed. Plan B - bring in the United Nations - failed; no country wanted to send troops, and many countries have pulled their troops out. Plan C – hand over “sovereignty” and pretend like 140,000 American troops aren’t occupying the country starting June 28th - failed.

The latest addition, Plan D, is bound to fail too in the long run. The question is, how many have to die on both sides, and how many billions have to be wasted until the troops come home for good and the Iraqis can run their country by themselves, for themselves? The answer depends on how many - inside the armed forces and out - decide enough is enough and begin organizing to end it once and for all.

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